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I believe he had nearly 80% support in the past from Evangelicals.

However, there have been calls for repudiation. Jerry Falwell, a big supporter, also resigned in scandal.

Have these, and the events of the last four years led to any drop in actual Evangelical votes for him in 2020? Will we know, taking into account ballot secrecy?

I am not so much interested in the reason for their support, that's been discussed before. Rather what their voting patterns ended up being. In the breakdown of vote counts by state, most detailed reports included data about % Trump vs % Biden by sex, race, and age. Can we expect something similar here?

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  • At a quick glance, exit polls say 75% of White Evangelicals voted for Trump (down about 6% from 2016). I don't have more detailed information than that, through...
    – Ted Wrigley
    Commented Nov 8, 2020 at 7:00
  • @TedWrigley Turnout would be interesting in this case too (I assume 75% here means 75% of those who turned out).
    – gerrit
    Commented Nov 8, 2020 at 9:19
  • @gerrit: this stat is from exit polls, so yes, it would necessarily be from those who voted. And it's a question about two touchy subjects — ballot choice and religion — which have the potential to skew outcomes a bit. But still...
    – Ted Wrigley
    Commented Nov 8, 2020 at 14:55

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According to Gallup, concerning the 2020 election:

The AP VoteCast survey shows that 81% of White evangelical Protestant voters went for Trump this year, compared with 18% who voted for Biden. The Edison exit polls estimate that 76% of White evangelicals voted for Trump, 24% for Biden.

These are nationwide exit polls, asking a sample of voters who they voted for.

Ballot secrecy of the actual election results most likely prevents us from knowing the actual raw data, as the ballots cast in the election don't ask about religion.

For comparison, using the link from the question: Pew research for 2016 puts White Evangelical support in that previous election at 81%, citing CNN.com and NBCnews.com. Keeping in mind we're comparing across different polling methodologies, these numbers suggest somewhere between a 0% to 5% drop in support compared to 2016.

As for breakdown by state for 2020, Washington Post has exit poll data that list white evangelical support for several states, although the list is not exhaustive, and the information requires a paid subscription to access.

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