I was thinking about this question about the 2016 presidential election. I was thinking about the results of the 2018 midterms. I was thinking about that question, but a little bit differently as like this:

  1. The district is contested and there is a Republican running. We don't want any precincts where the Dem gets 100% of the vote except for write-ins because there isn't a Republican running.
  2. There were >= 250 votes cast. This is done to make sure that there is less volatility in the result.

I want to see the results for this. I want to know if there were more such precincts in 2018 than in 2016.


1 Answer 1


Using the MIT 2018 precinct dataset in its current state at time of writing, I found sixty precincts which match your criteria. Thirty-nine were in New Jersey, mostly in Essex County - ten were in Missouri, seven in Alabama, two in South Carolina, and one each in Virginia and North Carolina.

Note that precinct data is extremely hard to analyse due to different reporting standards between local authorities - some record write-ins as separate precincts, some record votes which came from voting machines separately, and so on.

While interpreting the data below you should bear in mind the caveats attached to the MIT dataset - for example, it only contains data from 44 states. In particular, no data from New York is included, which helps explain why the number of precincts is significantly fewer than in the answer to the 2016 question.

However, the MIT data appears to be the most complete publically available precinct-level dataset, so that is what I've made do with.

The results from these sixty precincts are below, sorted by State, County, and then Republican %:

State,County,Precinct,Democrat,Republican,3rd Party,Total,Republican %
Alabama,Jefferson,PREC 1220 - WILLOW WOOD R,748,0,1,749,0.000
Alabama,Mobile,PRICHARD COMM CTR #2,343,3,1,347,0.865
Alabama,Mobile,VIGOR HIGH SCHOOL #1,570,5,0,575,0.870
Alabama,Montgomery,202 B,2045,1,2,2048,0.049
Alabama,Montgomery,205 S,1471,5,4,1480,0.338
Alabama,Montgomery,402 M,1261,6,3,1270,0.472
Alabama,Montgomery,204 F,2852,14,9,2875,0.487
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 21 P 05,330,2,6,338,0.592
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 21 P 07,264,2,3,269,0.743
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 22 P 02,441,4,10,455,0.879
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 05 P 03,417,4,11,432,0.926
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 22 P 03,514,5,12,531,0.942
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 27 P 02,305,3,7,315,0.952
Missouri,St. Louis City,W 27 P 06,497,5,10,512,0.977
Missouri,St. Louis County,NOR3 UNV21,421,1,5,427,0.234
Missouri,St. Louis County,NRW10,332,1,6,339,0.295
Missouri,St. Louis County,NRW42,425,4,3,432,0.926
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-20,318,0,5,323,0.000
New Jersey,Essex,Newark C-6,411,0,1,412,0.000
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 2-7,461,1,10,472,0.212
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-44,385,1,6,392,0.255
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 3-12,390,1,1,392,0.255
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-41,331,1,5,337,0.297
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-27,323,1,7,331,0.302
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-45,313,1,13,327,0.306
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-40,310,1,6,317,0.315
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-22,306,1,4,311,0.322
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-23,298,1,7,306,0.327
New Jersey,Essex,Irvington E-5,296,1,2,299,0.334
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 3-4,288,1,4,293,0.341
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-37,250,1,4,255,0.392
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 3-11,483,2,4,489,0.409
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-30,359,2,3,364,0.549
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-42,358,2,3,363,0.551
New Jersey,Essex,Orange E-2,344,2,9,355,0.563
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-40,518,3,8,529,0.567
New Jersey,Essex,Newark C-28,326,2,2,330,0.606
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-38,316,2,3,321,0.623
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-15,439,3,37,479,0.626
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-19,307,2,5,314,0.637
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 2-4,298,2,4,304,0.658
New Jersey,Essex,Orange E-5,442,3,3,448,0.670
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-29,284,2,1,287,0.697
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-23,283,2,1,286,0.699
New Jersey,Essex,Irvington N-4,265,2,2,269,0.743
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-32,252,2,2,256,0.781
New Jersey,Essex,Newark C-20,374,3,1,378,0.794
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-24,245,2,4,251,0.797
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 1-10,363,3,6,372,0.806
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 2-3,358,3,6,367,0.817
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-10,354,3,3,360,0.833
New Jersey,Essex,Newark S-46,466,4,5,475,0.842
New Jersey,Essex,Newark W-31,424,4,6,434,0.922
New Jersey,Essex,Newark C-23,738,7,9,754,0.928
New Jersey,Essex,East Orange 3-1,315,3,4,322,0.932
New Jersey,Mercer,Trenton West 13,313,2,0,315,0.635
North Carolina,Guilford,G67,350,3,7,360,0.833
South Carolina,Florence,Florence Ward 3,457,2,1,460,0.435
South Carolina,Orangeburg,NIX,457,1,1,459,0.218
Virginia,Suffolk City,602 - OLDE TOWNE,299,0,21,320,0.000
  • 2
    I knew you'd be able to track down and pull out the data when I saw this question posted! Aug 18, 2020 at 16:07

You must log in to answer this question.