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6

In terms of official policies of the modern Republican Party that deter a number of Black voters, they are not too hard to find. For instance, voter ID laws are widely perceived as an attempt to disenfranchise African Americans, and at least in 2014 many Republicans were publicly expressing their support for such laws. The American Legislative Exchange ...


14

This answer is freely adapted from a post from last year by Kevin Drum. In 2012, after Mitt Romney’s defeat, the Republican National Committee identified the demographic problem faced by the GOP: In 1980, exit polls tell us that the electorate was 88 percent white. In 2012, it was 72 percent white….According to the Pew Hispanic Center, in 2050, whites will ...


10

To give a theoretical perspective on this: Going by your question, I assume the following interpretation of terms matches your intentions: A Democrat is somebody who is more likely to vote Democrat than Republican (and vice versa). I here introduce the notion of probability to account for effects of individual elections such as preferences for particular ...


17

It really depends on how you define 'members', but both early registration totals and opinion polling suggest that there are significantly more Democrats than Republicans. For example, Ballot Access News has collated the early 2020 registration totals from 32 states, and presents the figure of 45,715,952 Democrats compared to 33,284,020 Republicans in its ...


5

Yes, at least according to numbers Wikipedia sources to Ballot Access News. The Republican Party is listed as having approximate 33.2 million members, while the Democratic Party is listed around 45.7 million.


14

I could be missing something but a quick look at the White House healthcare news feed makes me think he was probably bluffing and that nothing significant has happened. I see no bills announced there since July 13th. So far I also see no mention of anything concrete in the works, but there is a lot of content there so I would encourage you to keep searching ...


24

Even ignoring demographics there is still a key reason here. https://www.sentencingproject.org/news/5593/ In “Growth in the U.S. Ex-Felon and Ex-Prisoner Population, 1948 to 2010,” Sarah Shannon and colleagues estimate that one-third of black men had a felony conviction in 2010 Not only do many states outright ban felons voting, but once the bans expire ...


21

The Republicans were very successful at gerrymandering in states where they started with a majority and they used racial data to do it. It's called Project REDMAP. For example, Georgia: In 2016, the overall state percentage of voters was 45.35% for Clinton and 50.44% for Trump, which seems like a moderately close race. But only 5 out of 14 representatives ...


64

Using the Cooperative Congressional Election Study 2018, we can test your hypothesis that non-African Americans skew as far to the Republicans as African Americans do to Democrats. Let's limit ourselves firstly to voters in the deep south, which I'll define as Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, & South Carolina. This gives us a survey population ...


14

Mississipi, for example is about 60% white 35% black (and small numbers of other racial groups) In 2016, the state was comfortably Republican, with Trump winning 57% of the vote. so let's run the numbers, assuming that 90% of the black vote was Democrat, and that there were no significant differences in voter turn out, what percentage of of the non-black ...


7

You are correct. There is a slight but significant racial turnout gap and Republicans consistently win low percentages of the black vote. Combine that with general demographics and it is unsurprising that Republicans have consistently dominated the South in recent decades.


1

The names 'Republican' and 'Democrat' have symbolic meaning from the eras in which they were chosen, and are retained to the modern era — where they are no longer entirely meaningful or relevant — mainly because of path dependency. It is extremely problematic to change the identifying name of a group mid-stream, because many people track groups specifically ...


14

Although, according to this article by Christopher Klein, the term 'grand old party' was used to refer to the Democratic party in 1859 by Democratic Governor Beriah Magoffin, and later, in 1860, by a Democratic newspaper, the 'GOP' acronym only appears to have been applied on a large scale to the Republican party. The original term which associated 'GOP' ...


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