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Unless you're hoping to dredge up Trumpian conspiracy theories here (which he advanced wrt NH before), the simple explanation is the "first past the post system". The popular vote swing was not substantial (+4% more D votes) compared to 2016, but it did put the Democrats over the 50% "bar" on average, in 2018.


In terms of not achieving the nomination of their party due to losing the primary contests directly, no. However, there have been times when the incumbent president seeking re-election has pulled out of the contest early, for example in 1968 when Lyndon B. Johnson pulled out of the race after winning the first primary in New Hampshire by only 7 percent - ...


No incumbent president has lost his primary race, but you have to keep in mind that primaries are a 20th century invention basically. The 1976 campaign season was the year in which primaries started to matter more than ever before, and is considered the closest a sitting President has come to losing his party’s nomination in modern history. President ...

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